By Steve Farmand
•
July 5, 2023
Dear Clients and Friends, We hope that everyone enjoyed their celebration of the Fourth of July. For us, the Fourth of July is a celebration of everything that America stands for – independence, freedom, liberties, and most of all families. The quarter ended on a positive note with all the major indexes advancing nicely for the quarter and mid-year. During their June meeting, the Federal Reserve, again, did what all of Wall Street had anticipated and “paused” on raising key interest rates. However, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement was very hawkish leaving the possibility of two future increases in key interest rates. According to the Federal Reserve, this will be based on future economic data and determined on a meeting-by-meeting basis. Long story short, inflation is on a downward trend, the labor market is cracking, and financial stress measures are spiking – a potent combination which will inevitably force the Fed to end its rate-like campaign. The global economy has managed to avoid a recession at mid-year, thanks to resilient consumers, a surge in travel and leisure activities, and the reopening of China’s economy following pandemic-related lockdowns. That is likely to change in the second half of the year as the impact of high interest rates, inflation and a banking sector crisis combine to possibly tip the world into a mild recession. Many economic indicators are pointing to a recession in the United States, not the least of which is an inverted yield curve. That happens when yields on short-term U.S. Treasury bonds are higher than long-term bonds, indicating that investors expect tough economic times ahead. It may not feel like it at the grocery store, but inflation is on a downward trajectory in the U.S., Europe and across many other markets. That is largely due to lower energy prices, fewer supply chain disruptions and aggressive interest rate hikes by central banks. Interest- rate sensitive industries, such as housing, are already feeling the effects, with home prices falling in some formerly hot markets. Rate hikes meant to fight inflation has also triggered a crisis in the banking sector. A sharp selloff in the bond market last year hammered the portfolios of numerous regional banks. The next shoe to drop could be commercial real estate. Office vacancy rates are on the rise as more companies embrace work-from-home business models. Given these mounting risks, the interest rate outlook has changed dramatically since early March, when the banking crisis first hit. Investors no longer feel that the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise rates as far or as fast as previously expected, largely due to a tighter lending environment stemming from the banking turmoil. Most everyone knew there would be consequences to one of the most aggressive tightening campaigns in history. The dislocations we are seeing in the financial markets signal a painful new phase for the Fed. It has clearly exposed some vulnerabilities and as a result, we feel we are nearing the end of this rate-hiking cycle. In the meantime, the economy is showing surprising resilience in the face of higher interest rates. The U.S. economy grew at a 2% annual pace from January through March as consumers spent at the fastest pace in nearly two years. The economy has been slowed by the Federal Reserve’s aggressive drive to tame inflation through a series of interest rate hikes beginning early last year. The Fed has raised its benchmark interest rate ten times since March 2022 in its attack on inflation, which hit a four-decade high of 9.1% last year but has since slowed to 4%. In the current April-June quarter, the economy is believed to be slowing further but still managing to maintain its growth. Therefore, over the next few months, we feel that we will continue to get falling inflation with a dovish shift in Fed policy and rising earnings. During the quarter, we took advantage of the stock market’s strength by trimming some overweighted positions and selling some entire positions. Our biggest trimming came from the partial sale of Nvidia. We sold one-half of the Nvidia position in each of our portfolios for a nice gain. We sold our entire positions in GE Healthcare (GEHC), which was spun off from General Electric (GE), which we still own. We believe the remaining company is still undervalued, while CEO Larry Culp has reduced leverage, cut costs, streamlined operations and improved overall morale. In the first quarter of 2024, GE will separate aviation and power, which we believe will highlight the underlying values of each as the strong, defensive growth businesses they are. We also sold all three of our positions in the Inflation Protected Bond-The iShares TIPS Bond ETF (TIP), the SPDR Portfolio TIPS ETF (SPIP) and the iShares 0–5-year TIPS Bond ETF (STIP). In addition, Cowen, Inc. 7.75% Preferred stock (COWN) was “called” in at $25.00 a share, which caused the liquidation of our entire position. We put the cash proceeds from the sales right into the Schwab Value Advantage Money Fund (SWVXX), which currently pays around 5.00%. The Schwab Value Advantage Money Fund (SWVXX) is a fund that we use for investing excess cash or for specific restrictions. It can be easily liquidated within one day. However, it is important to note that this fund is not a permanent place to invest your funds. As far as our investment strategy is concerned, we continue to maintain our standard two-pronged strategy, which is to maintain a substantial exposure to common stocks (and mutual funds) as long as there is reasonable prospect for double – digit returns. Furthermore, we will continue to take profits more frequently so that we could gradually increase our weighting in cash as well as the fixed income portion of our portfolios. During the quarter, we continued with our average asset allocation mix of 40%-50% Equity, 40%-50% Fixed Income and 0%-20% cash for most of the portfolios. We want to thank all of you for giving our firm the opportunity to serve you. We thank you very much for the trust and confidence you have placed in our firm as it is always appreciated. Please contact us should you have any questions or comments. Also, we want to invite you to visit our website at www.farmandinvestments.com for a quick Retirement calculator, our latest firm news and Market Commentary Archives.