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Quarterly Investment Update - 4th Quarter 2023
Steve Farmand • January 4, 2024
Dear Clients and Friends,
The 4th quarter ended on a positive note with all the major stock indexes up for the quarter and year. A strong market rally has been in force since the end of October with the major indexes on a nine-week win streak. The Standard & Poor 500 Index closed just below its all-time high.
After rising and then moving sideways in recent months, inflation emphatically resumed its decent in October. Since reaching a 40-year high of 9.1% in June 2022, inflation has come down substantially. The Federal Reserve is winning its fight over inflation, boosting Americans’ spirits and offering greater reassurance that the U.S. economy can avoid a recession while bringing prices under control.
The Commerce Department recently reported that the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the personal consumption index, fell 0.1% in November from the previous month, the first decline since April 2020. Prices were up 2.6% on the year, not far from the Fed’s 2% target. Core prices, which exclude volatile food and energy costs, rose just 1.9% on a six-month annualized basis, suggesting the Fed is well on its way to reaching that target.
Consumers, after dealing with crushing price increases and recession fears over the past two years, are adopting a sunnier outlook. A measure of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan released recently rose 14% to a five-month high in December from the previous month as households brought down their expectations for inflation in 2024.
These developments at least raise the prospect of some longer-lasting relief for Americans who have struggled to keep pace with rapidly rising prices triggered by pandemic-related supply chain troubles and consumer demand surges for more than two years.
The Federal Reserve’s December meeting brought us a “Gift from Santa Powell”. The Federal Reserve not only held rates steady for a third straight time (as expected), but also surprised investors with an indication of three rate cuts in 2024 (.25% each). In addition, the Fed’s “dot plot” (committee member expectations) also suggested an additional four cuts in 2025 ( a full percentage point). The stock and bond market’s reaction helped the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DOW) surpass 37,000 for the first time ever. Chairman Powell discussed some of the developments which may have led to their decisions:
· Healthy jobs growth
· Lower inflation rate
· Higher economic growth
Overall, a strong labor market supports economic growth while lower inflation supports the idea of lower interest rates in the future. In terms of the markets, a stable – to – lower interest rate environment is supportive for both stocks and bonds.
As always, Farmand Investment Services recommends staying balanced, diversified and invested. Despite short term market pullbacks, it is more important to stay focused on the long – term (3-5 years), improving the chances for clients to reach their goals.
During the quarter, we continued to take advantage of the stock market’s strength by trimming some over weighted positions and selling some entire positions. We sold our entire position in General Electric (GE), Walt Disney Holdings (DIS), and Park Hotels and Resort (PK). We put the cash proceeds from the sales right into the Schwab Value Advantage Money Fund (SWVXX), which currently pays over 5.00%. The Schwab Value Advantage Money Fund (SWVXX) is a fund that we use for investing excess cash or for specific restrictions. We also sold some of our municipal bond funds (BLE, NVG & NZF) for a tax loss and purchased another municipal bond fund, First Trust Managed Municipal ETF (FMB) to avoid the “wash sale” rule.
As far as purchases were concerned, we added one new equity position, Oscar Health, Inc. (OSCR), which operates as a health insurance company in the United States. The company offers Individual and Small Group and Medicare Advantage plans, as well as +Oscar, a technology driven platform designed to help providers and payors directly enable their shift to value-based care. It also provides re-insurance products.
As far as our investment strategy is concerned, we continue to maintain our standard two-pronged strategy, which is to maintain a substantial exposure to common stocks (and mutual funds) as long as there is reasonable prospect for double – digit returns. Furthermore, we will continue to take profits more frequently so that we could gradually increase our weighting in cash as well as the fixed income portion of our portfolios. During the quarter, we continued with our average asset allocation mix of 40%-50% Equity, 40%-50% Fixed Income and 0%-20% cash for most of the portfolios.
We want to thank all of you for giving our firm the opportunity to serve you. We thank you very much for the trust and confidence you have placed in our firm as it is always appreciated. Please contact us should you have any questions or comments. Also, we want to invite you to visit our website at www.farmandinvestments.com for a quick Retirement calculator, our latest firm news and Market Commentary Archives.
Dear Clients and Friends, First of all, we hope everyone had a Merry Christmas and wish everyone a Happy New Year. As far as stocks are concerned, we did not get a “Santa Claus” rally as we were hoping. Instead, December’s performance was the worst month of the quarter. However, as you can see, all of our portfolios are up for the quarter and the year. So now that 2024 is behind us, how do we plan for 2025? Given the broadly healthy economic conditions for a soft landing, we feel that 2025 will produce good earnings reports, which should help the stock market to go higher. At their last meeting, the Federal Reserve did what we expected, they cut interest rates by .25%. However, the tone of the chairman’s voice changed at his news conference. Jerome Powell said that the committee had to readjust expectations due to inflation remaining higher than expected. Inflation reaccelerated in October and November, and core CPI is staying higher than expected and remaining higher than 3%. The expectation for the Federal Reserve is to cut interest rates for 2025 twice by .50%. This lowers the target interest rate range between 4.25% to 4.5% and reflects the Fed’s ongoing commitment to achieving its dual goals of maximum employment and price stability. Thus, there is not much price to earnings (P/E) multiple expansion expected, which implies that the market should be driven by earnings in 2025. The market over the past two years has been driven mostly by P/E multiple expansion due to the very concentrated move in the technology sector. During 2025, it is expected that all sectors of the market will experience earnings growth, especially smaller companies. We feel that the market wants some new stocks to rotate into other than technology. During the quarter, we continued to take advantage of the stock market’s strength by trimming some over weighted positions and some entire positions. We sold our full position in Compagnie Financière (CFRUY) and Alliances Bernstein Holding LP (AB). We also sold one-half of the position in CNX Resources (CNX) and Amazon (AMZN). We put cash proceeds from the sales right into the Schwab Value Advantage Money Fund (SWVXX). The Schwab Money Value Advantage Money Fund is a fund that we use for investing excess cash or for specific restrictions. As far as purchases were concerned, we added one new equity position, Westrock Coffee (WEST). As far as our investment strategy is concerned, we continue to maintain our standard two-pronged strategy, which is to maintain a substantial exposure to common stocks (and mutual funds) as long as there is reasonable prospect for double-digit returns. Furthermore, we will continue to take profits more frequently so that we could gradually increase our weighting in cash as well as the fixed income portion of our portfolios. During the quarter, we continued with our average asset allocation mix of 40%-50% Equity, 40%-50% Fixed Income and 0%-20% cash for most of the portfolios. We want to thank all of you for giving our firm the opportunity to serve you. We thank you very much for the trust and confidence you have placed in our firm as it is always appreciated. Please contact us should you have any questions or comments. Also, we want to invite you to visit our website at www.farmandinvestments.com for a quick Retirement calculator, our latest firm news and Market Commentary Archives.
Dear Clients and Friends, A couple of weeks ago, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50-basis points, making the first interest-rate cut since 2020. It was also the first time there was a dissent from a Fed Governor since 2005, as Michelle Bowman preferred a 25-basis point cut. To make sure we are on the same page, let’s see what the Fed’s updated Dot Plot reveal about where interest rates go from here. The Dot Plot is a graphical representation reflecting each committee member’s anonymous projection of where they believe rates will be in the future. The Fed members update the Dot Plot once every three months. In both the December and March FOMC meetings, the Dot Plot showed a median forecast of three-quarter point rate cuts in 2024. The June Dot Plot pared that back to just one rate cut this year. The latest consensus projection now calls for two more 25-basis-point-cuts this year followed by four more quarter-point cuts next year, then two more quarter-point cuts into 2026. Also, the Fed’s summary of Economic Projections (SEP) sees core inflations peaking at 2.6% this year before cooling to 2.2% in 2025 and 2.0% in 2026. The Fed slightly lowered its previous forecast for U.S. economic growth, with the economy expected to grow at an annual pace of 2.0% this year and remain at that level through 2025 and 2026. Given the broadly healthy economic conditions for a soft landing, investors have front-run anticipated rate cuts all year long, which has pushed the S&P up 18% so far in 2024. As expected, this heavy buying pressure has driven the S&P 500’s valuation materially higher. One would question whether these valuations will continue to go higher. Based on the past rate-cutting cycles, we feel that the stock market valuations will continue to go higher. How much higher? And how does that compare with the valuations at the beginning of prior rate-cutting cycles? To contextualize where we are today, let’s begin with prior valuations. The highest S&P 500 valuations at the beginning of rate-cutting cycles over the last 40 years came in 1998, 2001 and 2019. Their average price-to-earnings ratio was 23.6 and their average price-to-sales ratio of 3.0. Specifically, today’s price to earnings ratio is 25% more expensive than the average of the prior three most expensive starting rate cut valuations, and 50% more expensive on a price-to-sales basis. This does not mean stocks cannot or will not soar from here, but it does suggest we should recognize the implications for longer term returns. That forecast may end up being overly pessimistic given the potential for a further structural shift higher in valuations as in prior decades, but it does suggest that another decade of double-digit annualized returns, which investors have enjoyed over the past 10 years, is unlikely. However, we minimize any risk by investing in selective individual stocks that are undervalued, especially for retirement accounts. During the quarter, we added one new equity position, Park Hotel & Resorts (PK), which we previously owned. We also sold four additional equity positions and two REITS. Among the equity positions, we sold Alibaba Group Holding ltd (BABA), Kering SA (PPRUY), Kellogg (K), and B Riley Financial (RILY). In addition, we sold two real-estate investment trust positions Douglas Emmet, Inc. (DEI) and Tanger Factory Outlet (SKT). As far as the Fixed income area, we continued to buy short-term Treasury Bonds as the old ones matured. As far as our investment strategy is concerned, we continue to maintain our standard two-pronged strategy, which is to maintain substantial exposure to common stocks (and mutual funds) as long as there is reasonable prospect for double – digit returns. Furthermore, we will continue to take profits more frequently so that we could gradually increase our weighting in cash as well as the fixed income portion of our portfolios. During the quarter, we continued with our average asset allocation mix of 40%-50% Equity, 40%-50% Fixed Income and 0%-20% Cash for most of our portfolios. We want to thank all of you for giving our firm the opportunity to serve you. We thank you very much for the trust and confidence you have placed in our firm as it is always appreciated. Please contact us should you have any questions or comments. Also, we want to invite you to visit our website at www.farmandinvestments.com for a quick Retirement calculator, our latest firm news and Market Commentary Archives.
Dear Clients and Friends, We are sending you this special investment update to evaluate the first half of 2024 and project into the second half of 2024. The end of the previous quarter marked the midpoint of the year. Let us get an overall perspective on what happened during the first half of the year, then shift our perspective to what we expect will happen during the second half of the year. The top headline is the Standard & Poor’s (S&P’s) monster 14.5% return, the best first half to an election year in almost 50 years, punctuated by 31 different record-high closes. Now, if you are not seeing a similar return in your portfolio, there is a good reason – a select few Tech / AI stocks are behind most of these gains. For example, Nvidia’s 149.5% surge was responsible for roughly 30% of the S&P’s climb. Throw in Microsoft, Apple, Google, and Amazon, and that group of five tech dominators accounts for 62% of the S&P’s gains. Meanwhile, the average stock in S&P, as illustrated through the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index, climbed just 4% in the first half. Over in the tech-heavy NASDAQ, the first half gains were even bigger – an 18% return. However, here too, there was a wide differential between the top stocks and “all the rest.” The Equal Weight NASDAQ 100 Index added less than 5%. Of the major three indexes, the Dow Jones brings up the rear, climbing less than 4% as big names such as Nike, Intel, and Boeing all collapsed more than 30% in the first half of the year. In the small-cap area, the underperformance continued as the iShares Russell 2000 ETF climbed barely to 1.5% after spending much of the first half of the year underwater. If we break down the market’s overall performance into quarters, we see a “tale of two markets.” During the first quarter, the market as a whole did very well. The percentage of the S&P stocks making 12-month highs topped out in March. But in the second quarter, the performance narrowed. The reason for the shift is because it was in late March/early April when Wall Street realized that the Fed was not going to have an avalanche of rate cuts that had been priced into the market. You will recall that the first three months of the year featured inflation data that came in “hotter than expected.” It was this March/April stretch when Wall Street finally begrudgingly concluded that the inflation data were not playing nice. As far as Treasuries were concerned, yields were volatile, but shifted higher overall. The 2-year Treasury yield climbed 50 basis points to 4.75% while the 10-year Treasury yield added 52 basis points to 4.40%. As to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy and the timing of the rate cuts, Wall Street came into the year with high hopes. In early January, the going expectation was for the six quarter points cuts this year. That prediction aged about as well as “transitory inflation.” The first half of 2024 saw AI continue winning. Using S&P measures for the US, momentum’s tear on the back of artificial intelligence is on a scale never seen before – its relative performances at least surpassed the high set during the dot-com bubble in 2000. But as we look ahead, increasing caution appears to be needed. Last week, reports leaked suggesting that the Biden administration is looking to improve even stricter controls on sales of semiconductors and related equipment to China. Meanwhile, former President Donald Trump sounded negative in his comments about Taiwan, the semiconductor manufacturing capital of the world. Investors net takeaway was that no matter who wins the White House in November, there will likely be increased scrutiny on the exchange of AI products and equipment between the U.S and Asia. Though we are optimistic about the second half of 2024, we maintain an undercurrent of caution. There are growing red flags and signs of weakness in both the economy and various corners of the market. We want to thank all of you for giving our firm the opportunity to serve you. We thank you very much for the trust and confidence you have placed in our firm as it is always appreciated. Please contact us should you have any questions or comments. Also, we want to invite you to visit our website at www.farmandinvestments.com for a quick Retirement calculator, our latest firm news and Market Commentary Archives.
Dear Clients and Friends, The Standard and Poor 500 index is up over 14% year – to – date and hitting all-time highs. So, is it time to push more chips into this market? Or should we be taking profits off the table to sidestep the risk of a looming pullback? In order to answer this question, you need to look back to last summer. The U.S. Federal Reserve stopped raising rates after its most fast – and – furious rate – hike cycle in history. From March 2022 to July 2023, the Fed hiked by 525 basis points – all in just about 18 months. Since then, the stock market has been anxiously awaiting the central bank’s first rate cut. For the past several months, the U.S. Federal Reserve has consistently expressed its willingness to cut interest rates once it feels confident that inflation is on a sustainable trajectory back to 2%. U.S. inflation tracked sideways this quarter and consumer spending weakened, mixed signals for the Federal Reserve that provided little clarity on whether the U.S. central bank will be able to begin cutting interest rates in September. The data suggested the elevated pace of price increases could last longer than expected but also the prospect that more tepid consumer spending may keep a lid on price increases in the months ahead. The Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index increased 0.3% in April. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, increased by 0.2% in April after a downwardly revised 0.7% rise in March. Revised gross domestic product data showed consumer spending moderating to a 2.0% pace in the 1 st quarter. The biggest headwind facing the global and investment markets in recent weeks has been the climbing 10 – year Treasury yield. It has been climbing steadily over the past several months. The 10 – Year Treasury Note was yielding approximately 3.75% last summer. The yield kept rising to over 4.7% in late April and has been volatile since then and currently has a yield of a little over 4.35%. The Fed presently does not feel any urgency to cut interest rates. But recent economic data suggests that they should get some urgency soon. A couple of weeks ago, we learned that jobless claims in the U.S. economy soared to a nine-month high. We also learned that consumer sentiment in the U.S. economy plunged to a six-month low and is currently in the midst of its biggest three month drop since summer 2022. That data adds to a long list of evidence that the U.S. economy is slowing rapidly right now. Last Thursday, we had the first of two scheduled Presidential debates. Unfortunately, it lived up to its expectations. Both candidates are deeply unpopular and nothing happened on Thursday that changed either candidate’s popularity. However, betting markets interpreted the debate as a huge “win” for Trump and a huge “loss” for Biden. Meanwhile, May’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation report, was released last Friday. It showed that PCE inflation fell from 2.7% to 2.6% in May, while the core PCE rate dropped even more from 2.8% to 2.6%. Core PCE inflation is now running at its lowest level since March 2021 and it is expected to fall further in June. During the quarter, we added some new equity positions such as Fortune Brands Innovations Inc. (FBIN), Kellanova (K), (formerly Kelloggs) and Bio – Rad Laboratories, Inc. (BIO). We also purchased CVS Health Corporation (CVS) after we sold our Walgreens (WBA) position. As far as the Fixed Income area, we continued to buy additional short-term Treasury Bonds as the old ones matured. As far as our investment strategy is concerned, we continue to maintain our standard two-pronged strategy, which is to maintain substantial exposure to common stocks ( and mutual funds) as long as there is reasonable prospect for double – digit returns. Furthermore, we will continue to take profits more frequently so that we could gradually increase our weighting in cash as well as the fixed income portion of our portfolios. During the quarter, we continued with our average asset allocation mix of 40%-50% Equity, 40%-50% Fixed Income and 0%-20% Cash for most of our portfolios. We want to thank all of you for giving our firm the opportunity to serve you. We thank you very much for the trust and confidence you have placed in our firm as it is always appreciated. Please contact us should you have any questions or comments. Also, we want to invite you to visit our website at www.farmandinvestments.com for a quick Retirement calculator, our latest firm news and Market Commentary Archives. We want to wish you a happy and safe Independence Day Celebration this weekend.
Dear Clients and Friends, Stocks just wrapped up a solid first quarter with all the major stock indexes approaching new highs. Stocks have been up five consecutive months of solid gains, led by an especially strong rally in A.I. (Artificial Intelligence) stocks. Most of this rally is due to the Federal Reserve and their view of the economy and interest rates. Back in December, the Federal Reserve penciled in three interest rate cuts for 2024, which was a big deal. Throughout 2022 and 2023, the central bank embarked on the fastest rate – hiking path in our economy’s history. All those rate hikes were stifling both economic growth and the stock market. Investors were desperate for the hikes to end and, better yet, for the rate cuts to start. During its recent March meeting, the U.S. Federal Reserve updated its Summary of Economic Projections for the 1 st time since December and almost nothing changed. They also confirmed that three rate cuts are coming this year. Just as important, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s language shifted in his press conference after the meeting from “we need to see inflation come down to 2% before we cut rates” to “we’re pretty confident that inflation is going to come down to 2% and so we’re pretty confident that we’re going to be cutting rates multiple times this year”. He seemed entirely unphased by the recent relative “stickiness” in inflation. But since then, inflation has consistently surprised us to the upside and the overall U.S. inflation rate has stopped falling. Instead, it has stabilized right around 3%, which is above the Fed’s 2% target. Consequently, investors were worried that because inflation is flat lining above that target, the Fed would walk back the rate cuts. During their recent March meeting, they confirmed that three rate cuts are coming this year. Going back to 1950, the “average” inflation rate in the U.S. economy is 3.5%. we are below that right now. Therefore, even though inflation is stabilizing above the Fed’s target, it is more importantly stabilizing below the long-term average inflation level. This should not worry the Fed and should proceed with the rate cuts this year. This should be super bullish for stocks. For all of 2023, the economy grew a healthy 2.5%, defying predictions that the Federal Reserve’s aggressive increase in interest rates to fight inflation would tip the nation into a recession. However, economists said a pullback is likely in 2024 as high interest rates and inflation take a bigger toll on growth and a burst of post pandemic consumption runs dry. As a result, some experts believe that a mild recession will finally happen this year as layoffs spread beyond household names that already have cut jobs recently, such as Google, Amazon, and Wayfair. Broadly, however, the outlook for 2024 has recently brightened. Inflation has eased more swiftly than anticipated, even as consumer spending has stayed resilient. The inflation slowdown has led the Federal Reserve to signal it is likely done hiking its key interest rate after raising it to a 22- year high of 5.25% to 5.5%. During the quarter, we added to some of our existing holdings and sold off most of our underperforming holdings. We added one new equity position, Kering (PPRUY). However, it pays a dividend above 3%, which should currently be classified as a fixed income position. We also purchased additional U.S. Treasuries (6to 9 months) to replace the ones that expired on December 31, 2023. We plan to purchase additional U.S. Treasuries. We sold off many underperforming small holdings, such as Appharvest, Inc. rights (APPHW), as well as XOS Inc. rights (XOSWW). We also sold small positions in Danimer Scientific, Inc. (DNMR), Liberty Broadband Co. (LBRDK), Lucid Group, Inc. (LCID), Lumen Technologies, Inc. (LUMN), Opendoor Technologies (OPEN), Nio Inc. (NIO), Walgreens Boots (WBA), Lanxess Ag (LNXSF). In addition, we sold one-half of our position in Oscar Health, Inc. (OSCR) in all of our portfolios after it more than doubled. We also sold our entire position in Fairfax Financial Holdings (FRFHF) after a considerable gain. Selling Fairfax Financial Holdings was a very tough decision for us because we feel there is still more value in this position. We continued to put most of the cash proceeds from the sales right into the Schwab Value Advantage Money Market Fund (SWVXX), which currently pays in excess of 5%. The Schwab Value Advantage Money Fund (SWVXX) is a fund that we use for investing excess cash or for specific restrictions as set forth by the client. As far as our investment strategy is concerned, we continue to maintain our standard two-pronged strategy, which is to maintain a substantial exposure to common stocks (and mutual funds) as long as there is reasonable prospect for double – digit returns. Furthermore, we will continue to take profits more frequently so that we could gradually increase our weighting in cash as well as the fixed income portion of our portfolios. During the quarter, we continued with our average asset allocation mix of 40%-50% Equity, 40%-50% Fixed Income and 0%-20% Cash for most of our portfolios. We want to thank all of you for giving our firm the opportunity to serve you. We thank you very much for the trust and confidence you have placed in our firm as it is always appreciated. Please contact us should you have any questions or comments. Also, we want to invite you to visit our website at www.farmandinvestments.com for a quick Retirement calculator, our latest firm news and Market Commentary Archives.
Dear Clients and Friends, For the quarter, the S&P 500 fell about 3.6%, the Dow fell 3.5%, and the Nasdaq shed 4.1%. In September alone, the S&P 500 dropped 4.9%, the Dow fell 3.5%, and the Nasdaq declined 5.8%. The third quarter ended with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posting their biggest monthly percentage drops of the year, while all three major indexes had their first quarterly declines in 2023. Data showed the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, excluding the volatile food and energy components, increased 3.9% on an annual basis for August, the first time in over two years it had fallen below 4.0%. The Federal Reserve tracks the PCE price indexes for its 2% inflation target. The data revealed a “better than expected but still elevated inflation picture”, said Eric Freedman, chief investment officer at U.S. Bank Asset Management. During their September meeting, the Federal Reserve, again, did what all of Wall Street had anticipated and “paused” on raising key interest rates. However, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement was very hawkish, leaving the possibility of one more future increase in key interest rates. According to the Federal Reserve, this will be based on future economic data and determined on a meeting-by-meeting basis. However, even though inflation is on a downward trend, it did spike up during the quarter. Powell’s view also changed by saying that interest rates could stay higher for a lot longer than anticipated. Powell’s baseline case is no longer for a “soft landing”, which means recession. Obviously, the markets did not like the large change in expectations and all of the major indexes fell. In addition, the threat of a federal government shutdown suddenly lifted late Saturday night as President Joe Biden signed a temporary funding bill to keep agencies open with little time to spare after Congress rushed to approve the bipartisan deal. The bill funds the government until November 17. The U.S. economy continues to show resilience in the face of steadily higher interest rates resulting from the Federal Reserve’s 18-month long fight to bring down inflation. Estimates from the Commerce Department indicate that the gross domestic product – the economy’s total output of goods and services, is picking up in its growth rate. Driving this growth was a burst of business investment. Companies plowed more money into factories and equipment. Increased spending by state and local governments also helped fund the economy’s expansion. Consumer spending, the heart of the nations economy, continues to be solid. Investment in housing, though fell, weakened by the weight of higher mortgage rates. The bottom line is that U.S. economy is still growing above trend, and the Fed will be wondering if they need to do more to slow the economy. During the quarter, we took advantage of the stock market’s strength by trimming some overweighted positions and selling some entire positions. We sold our entire positions in Sofi Technologies (SOFI), Vimeo, Inc (VMEO), Quantumscape (QS), and Alphabet Inc (GOOG). After successfully owning Alphabet from 2015 to 2020, we purchased the company again in 2022 as tech stocks broadly faced weakness. We put the cash proceeds from the sales right into the Schwab Value Advantage Money Fund (SWVXX), which currently pays over 5.00%. The Schwab Value Advantage Money Fund (SWVXX) is a fund that we use for investing excess cash or for specific restrictions. As far as purchases were concerned, we added one new position, Fidelity National Information Services, Inc. (FIS), which is a provider of technology solutions for financial institutions and businesses of all sizes. As far as our investment strategy is concerned, we continue to maintain our standard two-pronged strategy, which is to maintain a substantial exposure to common stocks (and mutual funds) as long as there is reasonable prospect for double – digit returns. Furthermore, we will continue to take profits more frequently so that we could gradually increase our weighting in cash as well as the fixed income portion of our portfolios. During the quarter, we continued with our average asset allocation mix of 40%-50% Equity, 40%-50% Fixed Income and 0%-20% cash for most of the portfolios. We want to thank all of you for giving our firm the opportunity to serve you. We thank you very much for the trust and confidence you have placed in our firm as it is always appreciated. Please contact us should you have any questions or comments. Also, we want to invite you to visit our website at www.farmandinvestments.com for a quick Retirement calculator, our latest firm news and Market Commentary Archives.
Dear Clients and Friends, We hope that everyone enjoyed their celebration of the Fourth of July. For us, the Fourth of July is a celebration of everything that America stands for – independence, freedom, liberties, and most of all families. The quarter ended on a positive note with all the major indexes advancing nicely for the quarter and mid-year. During their June meeting, the Federal Reserve, again, did what all of Wall Street had anticipated and “paused” on raising key interest rates. However, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement was very hawkish leaving the possibility of two future increases in key interest rates. According to the Federal Reserve, this will be based on future economic data and determined on a meeting-by-meeting basis. Long story short, inflation is on a downward trend, the labor market is cracking, and financial stress measures are spiking – a potent combination which will inevitably force the Fed to end its rate-like campaign. The global economy has managed to avoid a recession at mid-year, thanks to resilient consumers, a surge in travel and leisure activities, and the reopening of China’s economy following pandemic-related lockdowns. That is likely to change in the second half of the year as the impact of high interest rates, inflation and a banking sector crisis combine to possibly tip the world into a mild recession. Many economic indicators are pointing to a recession in the United States, not the least of which is an inverted yield curve. That happens when yields on short-term U.S. Treasury bonds are higher than long-term bonds, indicating that investors expect tough economic times ahead. It may not feel like it at the grocery store, but inflation is on a downward trajectory in the U.S., Europe and across many other markets. That is largely due to lower energy prices, fewer supply chain disruptions and aggressive interest rate hikes by central banks. Interest- rate sensitive industries, such as housing, are already feeling the effects, with home prices falling in some formerly hot markets. Rate hikes meant to fight inflation has also triggered a crisis in the banking sector. A sharp selloff in the bond market last year hammered the portfolios of numerous regional banks. The next shoe to drop could be commercial real estate. Office vacancy rates are on the rise as more companies embrace work-from-home business models. Given these mounting risks, the interest rate outlook has changed dramatically since early March, when the banking crisis first hit. Investors no longer feel that the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise rates as far or as fast as previously expected, largely due to a tighter lending environment stemming from the banking turmoil. Most everyone knew there would be consequences to one of the most aggressive tightening campaigns in history. The dislocations we are seeing in the financial markets signal a painful new phase for the Fed. It has clearly exposed some vulnerabilities and as a result, we feel we are nearing the end of this rate-hiking cycle. In the meantime, the economy is showing surprising resilience in the face of higher interest rates. The U.S. economy grew at a 2% annual pace from January through March as consumers spent at the fastest pace in nearly two years. The economy has been slowed by the Federal Reserve’s aggressive drive to tame inflation through a series of interest rate hikes beginning early last year. The Fed has raised its benchmark interest rate ten times since March 2022 in its attack on inflation, which hit a four-decade high of 9.1% last year but has since slowed to 4%. In the current April-June quarter, the economy is believed to be slowing further but still managing to maintain its growth. Therefore, over the next few months, we feel that we will continue to get falling inflation with a dovish shift in Fed policy and rising earnings. During the quarter, we took advantage of the stock market’s strength by trimming some overweighted positions and selling some entire positions. Our biggest trimming came from the partial sale of Nvidia. We sold one-half of the Nvidia position in each of our portfolios for a nice gain. We sold our entire positions in GE Healthcare (GEHC), which was spun off from General Electric (GE), which we still own. We believe the remaining company is still undervalued, while CEO Larry Culp has reduced leverage, cut costs, streamlined operations and improved overall morale. In the first quarter of 2024, GE will separate aviation and power, which we believe will highlight the underlying values of each as the strong, defensive growth businesses they are. We also sold all three of our positions in the Inflation Protected Bond-The iShares TIPS Bond ETF (TIP), the SPDR Portfolio TIPS ETF (SPIP) and the iShares 0–5-year TIPS Bond ETF (STIP). In addition, Cowen, Inc. 7.75% Preferred stock (COWN) was “called” in at $25.00 a share, which caused the liquidation of our entire position. We put the cash proceeds from the sales right into the Schwab Value Advantage Money Fund (SWVXX), which currently pays around 5.00%. The Schwab Value Advantage Money Fund (SWVXX) is a fund that we use for investing excess cash or for specific restrictions. It can be easily liquidated within one day. However, it is important to note that this fund is not a permanent place to invest your funds. As far as our investment strategy is concerned, we continue to maintain our standard two-pronged strategy, which is to maintain a substantial exposure to common stocks (and mutual funds) as long as there is reasonable prospect for double – digit returns. Furthermore, we will continue to take profits more frequently so that we could gradually increase our weighting in cash as well as the fixed income portion of our portfolios. During the quarter, we continued with our average asset allocation mix of 40%-50% Equity, 40%-50% Fixed Income and 0%-20% cash for most of the portfolios. We want to thank all of you for giving our firm the opportunity to serve you. We thank you very much for the trust and confidence you have placed in our firm as it is always appreciated. Please contact us should you have any questions or comments. Also, we want to invite you to visit our website at www.farmandinvestments.com for a quick Retirement calculator, our latest firm news and Market Commentary Archives.
Dear Clients and Friends, After a red-hot start to the year, the stock market has stalled out in February and March and now some investors are questioning whether we are going back into a bear market. The S&P 500 rose 6.2% in January, one of its best January performances ever. In fact, since 1950, the S&P 500 has risen 6% or more in January in just ten separate years. The results are even better when stocks popped in January after having a bad showing in the previous year, which is exactly the situation we have in 2023. That has happened four times since 1950. Each time stocks rose by more than 20% through the entire year. Barring a black swan event, history says it has a very good chance of being the start of a big stock market breakout that lasts for at least the rest of this year. During the last few weeks, three important pieces of economic data were released. We are talking about February’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Producer Price Index (PPI) and February retail sales. The CPI was up 0.4% in February and is now reviving at a 6% annual pace. That is down from 6.4% in January and is the smallest increase since September 2021. The PPI fell 0.1% in February, below the estimate for a 0.3% increase. Year-over-year prices rose 4.6%, which is down substantially from 5.7% in January. Then the Commerce Department reported that retail sales fell 0.4% in February, which was in line with expectations. During their March meeting, the Federal Reserve did what all of Wall Street had anticipated and raised key interest rates by twenty-five basis points. However, the big news was the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement. The previous FOMC statements typically had the phrase “we are going to have ongoing rate increases.” However, this phrase was missing from the March FOMC statement. In addition, the Federal Reserve has not ever discussed “tightening credit conditions” during this rate-hike cycle. Yet, Powell mentioned it about a dozen times in the post-meeting press conference. He kept saying repeatedly that because of the bank failures, credit conditions are tightening. He wanted to emphasize to everyone that bank lending standards are tightening. Tighter credit conditions mean it is harder to get access to capital. The harder it is to get access to capital, the less capital consumers and businesses have at their disposal. The less capital they have at their disposal, the less they spend. The less they spend, the lower inflation goes. Inflation and falling stock prices were the prevailing themes of 2022, but in 2023, disinflation and rising stock prices are the prevailing themes. Also, leading indicators of labor market strength have weakened over the past two months, implying that the stubbornly hot labor market is finally cooling. In addition, while the banking crisis appears to be contained for now, it has put banks on edge. Historically speaking, whenever financial stress measures spike to levels like this, the Federal Reserve typically supports financial markets with either a rate pause or rate cuts. Stocks tend to follow that action with big rallies. Given falling inflation trends, deteriorating labor market conditions and spiking financial stress measures, it appears very likely that the Federal Reserve will pause its rate-hike campaign very soon. We are hopeful that a Fed pause in May or June will spark a big stock market rally that will spill into a new bull market. To understand our investment strategy, we need to first understand the behavior patterns of stocks. In the short-term, stocks are driven by several factors such as geopolitics, interest rates, elections, recession fears and so on and so forth. In long term, however, stocks are driven by one thing, fundamentals. That is, at the end of the day, revenues and earnings drive stock prices. If a company’s revenues and earnings trend upward over time, then the company’s stock price will follow suit and rise. Conversely, if a company’s revenues and earnings trend downward over time then the company’s stock price will drop. Therefore, the historical correlation between earnings and stock prices is about as perfectly correlated as anything gets in the real world. At the end of the day, earnings drive stock prices. During the quarter, we took advantage of the market volatility by reducing our Equity portion of our portfolios and increasing our Fixed Income portion of our portfolios. We sold some overweighted equity positions and invested the proceeds by adding more U. S. Treasury Notes and Bills that have one-year maturities. As far as our investment strategy is concerned, we continue to maintain our standard two-pronged strategy, which is to maintain a substantial exposure to common stocks (and mutual funds) as long as there is reasonable prospect for double – digit returns. Furthermore, we will continue to take profits more frequently so that we could gradually increase our weighting in cash as well as the fixed income portion of our portfolios. During the quarter, we continued with our average asset allocation mix of 40%-50% Equity, 40%-50% Fixed Income and 0%-20% cash for most of the portfolios. We want to thank all of you for giving our firm the opportunity to serve you. We thank you very much for the trust and confidence you have placed in our firm as it is always appreciated. Please contact us should you have any questions or comments. Also, we want to invite you to visit our website at www.farmandinvestments.com for a quick Retirement calculator, our latest firm news and Market Commentary Archives.
Dear Clients and Friends, The fourth quarter ended on the same tone as the prior three quarters, with much volatility. In fact, the year 2022 started out on a collision course between Congress and the Federal Reserve. Congress kept passing more “spending” bills that increase the deficit as well as inflation and the Federal Reserve kept raising interest rates to curb inflation. During their last meeting in December, Federal Reserve Officials predicted that they will need to raise interest rates more than they had planned in 2023 to bring down inflation. The Federal Reserve’s final interest rate hike of the year, while historically large at half a percentage point, marked a step down from four straight three-quarters of point increases. Some economists say the Fed is more worried about the buoyant stock market and long-term interest rates that fell sharply as inflation pulled back. A vibrant stock market makes consumers feel wealthier prompting them to spend more. Also, lower long-term rates such as for mortgages lead consumers and businesses alike to borrow and spend more. Such developments bolster the economy but could well fuel more inflation. Some economists are also puzzled because the Fed’s inflation forecast does not seem to jibe with its economic projections. The Fed expects the economy to grow just 0.5% next year, weaker than the 1.2% it forecast in September. It also says that the 3.7% unemployment will rise to 4.6% by the end of 2023, above the 4.4% it had estimated. Normally, a softer economy and higher unemployment lead to less inflation because fewer shoppers are buying products and fewer employers are hiring, curbing pay increases. During the fourth quarter, stocks reduced their losses for the year. October was a stunning month for the stock market, with the S & P 500 jumping 8% and the Dow soaring 14%. The NASDAQ rose nearly 4%. Inflation also cooled, with both Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Produce Price Index (PPI) reports coming in lower than economists had anticipated. The slowdown in inflation had investors optimistic that the Federal Reserve would dial back on its aggressive key interest rate hikes in December. However, stocks pulled back sharply in the wake of a surprisingly hawkish Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement in early December. The language was not dovish, and the Fed’s dot-plot survey showed that the Fed plans to raise interest rates up to 5.1% in 2023, which was above its previous goal of 4.6% in September. Bonds have recorded their worst year in 2022 since the early 1930’s. With the Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index down more than .15% for the year through mid-October, losses are more than double any prior retracement back through the 1970’s. In combination with the stock market rout, this has made investing especially difficult for traditionally diversified portfolios, where allocations to bonds have significantly softened the blow in the past. Even in 2008 when the S & P 500 Total Return Index was down -3.7%, the Aggregate Bond Index posted a +5.2% gain for a total 60/40 blended portfolio loss of just -20.1% on the year. This historic “flight to safety” quality of bonds has simply not held true in 2022. So what will the Fed do in 2023? Despite its forecasts, economists expect the Central Bank to halt its rate hikes sooner if inflation continues to ease and the economy weakens in the coming months. The issue now is that the economy is again contending with stubbornly high inflation resulting from the massive Covid stimulus programs and supply chain disruptions as well as legislative spending bills. Further, the Federal Reserve has once again declared war on inflation by aggressively raising interest rates. In addition to higher rates targeted ahead, “Quantitative Tightening “is on the horizon whereby the Federal Reserve plans to reduce its balance sheet by selling bonds into the marketplace. During the quarter, we took advantage of the market volatility by reducing our Equity portion of our portfolios and increasing our Fixed Income portion of our portfolios. We sold some overweighted equity positions and invested the proceeds by adding more U. S. Treasury Notes and Bills that have one-year maturities. As far as our investment strategy is concerned, we continue to maintain our standard two-pronged strategy, which is to maintain a substantial exposure to common stocks (and mutual funds) as long as there is reasonable prospect for double – digit returns. Furthermore, we will continue to take profits more frequently so that we could gradually increase our weighting in cash as well as the fixed income portion of our portfolios. During the quarter, we continued with our average asset allocation mix of 40%-50% Equity, 40%-50% Fixed Income and 0%-20% cash for most of the portfolios. We want to thank all of you for giving our firm the opportunity to serve you. We thank you very much for the trust and confidence you have placed in our firm as it is always appreciated. Please contact us should you have any questions or comments. Also, we want to invite you to visit our website at www.farmandinvestments.com for a quick Retirement calculator, our latest firm news and Market Commentary Archives.
Dear Clients and Friends, The third quarter ended on the same tone as the prior two quarters, with much volatility. Most investors were rattled by all this volatility, and this can be nerve racking. This was particularly troubling for all our investors, especially those who are not comfortable with all this volatility. In fact, the year 2022 has been one of the most volatile years in decades, with everything from inflation to global conflict hurting the market. During this quarter’s volatility, our portfolios went up and down along with the stock and bond markets. As your investment advisor, we were very busy reviewing and analyzing each of our portfolios to make sure of the proper asset allocations as well as to make sure it meets each client’s investment goals. The quarter began on a positive note until Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell surprised the stock market with his hawkish comments at the Kansas City Federal annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming during its August meeting. As a result, stocks got crushed and wiped out most of the gains. Powell also implied that “with inflation running far above 2% and the labor market extremely tight, “additional rate hikes may be necessary which they did after the September meeting. At the September meeting, the Federal Reserve provided a clear outlook for the rest of the year, and it was a little shocking. As expected, the Federal Reserve officials noted unanimously to raise key interest rates by 75 basis points for the third straight time. What was surprising was the Fed expects key interest rates to reach 4.25% by the end of the year, which implies two more sizeable rate hikes. Even though the Fed has never raised interest rates right before any election, we feel that we will see a 0.75% rate hike at the November meeting and a 0.50% increase at the December meeting. We also feel that he will pause in raising any more interest rates for a while in 2023. As a result of the Fed’s latest rate hike, Treasury yields spiked higher with the two-year Treasury yield breaching 4% and the 10-year Treasury yield rising to above 4%. The one thing that Wall Street is afraid of is rising Treasury bond yields. The higher Treasury rates soar, the more the Fed must raise key interest rates to get to “neutral.” Higher rates will destroy the interest rate-sensitive parts of the U. S. economy and will eventually ripple through the rest of the economy. Given the surge in Treasury yields, virtually all of the stock markets’ gains since mid-June have now evaporated. In September alone, the S & P 500 dropped 11.6%, and the Dow declined 11%. The S & P has successfully “retested” its June lows. Now, this also creates a very strong U. S. dollar, so foreign capital should pour into U. S. Treasuries and shove the Treasury yields back down. Treasury yields are basically the interest you earn when you own U.S. Treasury bills, notes, bonds, or inflation-protected securities. The U.S. Department of Treasury sells these securities as a way to pay for the U. S. debt. The first thing to know about bond yields is that they move inversely to bond prices, just like a dividend stock. If the price of the bond goes down, you are earning a higher rate of return because you paid less. The opposite is true when bond prices go up. So, whenever you see the yields rise, the price of the bond is falling. The second thing to know is that Treasury prices fluctuate with supply and demand. Treasury bonds are sold at auction initially, but they can be bought and sold in the secondary markets after they are issued. As we discussed in the past, the latest inflation data crushed any hope that the Federal Reserve would back off its aggressive key interest rate hikes. As you may recall, the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.1% month-over-month, missing economists’ expectation for a 0.1%% decline. The CPI shocked Wall Street as energy prices dipped 5% in August, with gasoline prices dropping 10.6%. On the other hand, food prices rose 0.8% in August. Excluding food and energy, core CPI climbed 0.6% in August, which means that inflation is now embedded in many service costs. The next big inflation data to hit the tape will be October 13 with the September CPI. Even though there has been much discussion in the news about “recession”, the real buzz word should be “inflation”. We are hopeful that the economic data will reflect that inflation is being controlled, which should stabilize interest rates. In addition, in less than five weeks, we will have the opportunity to vote and possibly change our government’s structure so that we may grow the economy. We feel that we will have a nice rally in the fourth quarter. During the quarter, we took advantage of the market volatility to purchase new businesses that have been left behind by the market as well as added to our existing position. We added Alphabet, which we previously owned and sold for a nice gain. We also purchased more of Nvidia Corp. (NVDA), which we currently hold but added to our position. We also added to the energy sector, especially for those portfolios that did not have a full allocation. We added a position in Devon Energy (DVN) as well as Cenovus Energy (CVE). In the fixed income portion of our portfolios, we added U. S. Treasury Notes that have a yield in excess of 4.2%. They have a one-year maturity. As far as sales are concerned, we sold Biogen (BIIB), W. P. Carey, Inc. (WPC), Matterport, Inc. (MTTR) and Zoetis, Inc. (ZTS) and Fiserv, Inc. (FISV). As far as our investment strategy is concerned, we continue to maintain our standard two-pronged strategy, which is to maintain a substantial exposure to common stocks (and mutual funds) as long as there is reasonable prospect for double – digit returns. Furthermore, we will continue to take profits more frequently so that we could gradually increase our weighting in cash as well as the fixed income portion of our portfolios. During the quarter, we continued with our average asset allocation mix of 40%-50% Equity, 40%-50% Fixed Income and 0%-20% cash for most of the portfolios. We want to thank all of you for giving our firm the opportunity to serve you. We thank you very much for the trust and confidence you have placed in our firm as it is always appreciated. Please contact us should you have any questions or comments. Also, we want to invite you to visit our website at www.farmandinvestments.com for a quick Retirement calculator, our latest firm news and Market Commentary Archives.
